Abstract

Climate change is on the public radar and in the rhetoric of politicians, but will likely have to be dealt with even if CO₂ emissions are reduced to zero tomorrow. The issue of physical limits to our profligate and expanding levels of energy consumption, and what this means to the continued viability of current socio-economic structures, is much less understood. The Energy Sustainability Dilemma is now unfolding and will profoundly impact our children and all future generations, unless the finite nature of non-renewable resources is clearly understood and managed for long term sustainabililty.
 
The limits to our ability to ever grow energy supply from non-renewable resources are now becoming evident. More than half of the world’s oil production comes from countries that are past peak production. Estimates of the timing of the peak of global oil production range from now to as late as 2044, with a mean estimate in the 2012-2014 timeframe. Peak oil production in North America has already happened - the U.S. peaked in 1970, Mexico in 2004 and only Canada is now able to grow oil production thanks to the tar sands. Peak North American natural gas production happened in the early part of this decade and a global peak of gas production is forecast to occur before 2050. Natural gas is not expected to be able replace the energy lost from the depletion of oil supply after the peak in global oil production. Other forecasts suggest that global peak coal production, once considered an energy resource for "hundreds of years", could occur as early as 2025. Although there is a debate in the timing of peak production of oil, gas and coal among energy experts, there is a general consensus that it is a question of “when”, not “if”. Given the sheer magnitude of the contribution of non-renewable hydrocarbons to our energy consumption, the peaking of production of these fuels has tremendous implications for our modern way of life, unless we begin to move toward more sustainable levels of consumption. Increasing global conflicts related to energy, Iraq and Nigeria come to mind, are yet another consequence of an unsustainable energy future.

 
This presentation focuses on the "Big Picture" and how Canada and the United States fit into it, as well as what must be considered going forward to assure a sustainable energy future.

All welcome.Refreshments will be served.